SuperBook’s Blog

Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (G2) didn’t feature the strongest field, but at least GAYEGO (Gilded Time) established himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby (G1) contender while winning an exciting contest. The Blue Grass S. (G1) also delivered a thrilling outcome, with MONBA (Maria’s Mon) edging stablemate COWBOY CAL (Giant’s Causeway) in the final strides, but it’s difficult to take much from it in terms of the Kentucky Derby.

The Blue Grass, which attracted a deep field of 12 at Keeneland, remains a premiere prep for the Run for the Roses three weeks later, but Polytrack means that it is run on a different surface. Horses must be multi-dimensional to handle both Polytrack and dirt, and while some horses are very adaptable, others aren’t. That’s the nature of synthetic tracks, and it leads to plenty of confusion when major Kentucky Derby preps are involved. In last year’s Blue Grass, Dominican (El Corredor) defeated champion Street Sense, and he went on to finish 11th in the Kentucky Derby, third in the Round Table S. at Arlington Park and sixth in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer in his next three outings.

While Street Sense didn’t favor Polytrack, he was at least above average upon it. It’s the less-common examples, where top-class dirt horses don’t perform anywhere near par on an all-weather track, that the connections of PYRO (Pulpit) believe fits. Trainer Steve Asmussen, assistant Scott Blasi and jockey Shaun Bridgmohan were all baffled by the colt’s Blue Grass debacle, citing the same reason afterward: Pyro could not handle the Polytrack. That excuse won’t fly for everybody, especially those who felt his smashing victories in Louisiana were essentially fake performances run in slow times, and Pyro’s reputation definitely took a hit with his 10th-place finish on Saturday. But he’ll get the chance to put all questions to rest in the Kentucky Derby.

Monba broke well under Edgar Prado on Saturday, settling into second, about a length back of Cowboy Cal entering the backstretch, and tracked the pacesetter to the stretch drive. The early fractions were moderate (:24 4/5, :49 and 1:13), and even-money favorite Pyro was lagging far back in the pack, where he would remain the rest of the way. Monba launched his bid in midstretch, with Prado furiously encouraging the gray colt, and finally pulled even with a game Cowboy Cal right before the wire. Only a neck separated the two Todd Pletcher-trained colts at the finish, but Monba exited the nine-furlong test with much better prospects for the Kentucky Derby. He’s won on dirt, doing so at Churchill Downs last fall, while Cowboy Cal ran poorly in his only previous dirt attempt.

After opening his career with an easy score at Keeneland in mid-October, Monba captured a one-mile allowance under the Twin Spires on November 24. The Kentucky-bred then concluded his juvenile campaign with a fast-finishing fourth in the CashCall Futurity (G1). Unlike other competitors who will have two or more starts to build upon this year, Monba got very little out of his sophomore debut in the February 24 Fountain of Youth S. (G2). He was squeezed hard in the first turn, suffering a gash to his leg, and quickly retreated to last before being eased under the finish line that afternoon. Monba didn’t return to the worktab for three weeks, receiving four breezes in advance of the Blue Grass, and it was a hard-fought, all-out effort on Saturday. That makes him a bounce candidate next time out, but we can’t count on that scenario, or the possibility that he’s better on Polytrack. He’s a good horse with room for improvement.

Monba equaled a career best (earned last year at Keeneland) 97 BRIS Speed rating in the Blue Grass and will head to the first leg of the Triple Crown without a triple-digit Speed figure to his credit. That’s a concern in most years, but it’s typical in 2008. With the exception of Big Brown’s 110 in the Florida Derby (G1), Speed ratings have been mostly dismal for Kentucky Derby contenders this season.

Cowboy Cal needed graded earnings to make the Derby field, and his runner-up finish on Saturday could make it more difficult for other speed horses in the Run for the Roses.

“He wanted to run on the front end,” John Velazquez said. “I didn’t fight him.”

Cowboy Cal becomes another candidate, along with WAR PASS (Cherokee Run), BOB BLACK JACK (Stormy Jack), RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) and Big Brown, who could be winging it from the start on May 3.

Gotham S. (G2) winner VISIONAIRE (Grand Slam), who trailed the entire field into the clubhouse turn, left himself with too much to do in the Blue Grass but offered a solid rally for fifth, passing horses nicely in the final furlong. The one-run closer remains a threat to make his presence felt in the lane at Churchill. Fountain of Youth (G2) hero COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner BIG TRUCK (Hook and Ladder) both failed to offer any run, and their supporters will just draw a line through their efforts and blame it on Polytrack. The former will likely make the Derby field for Nick Zito, and Big Truck is clinging to a spot with $194,500 in graded earnings (20th on the current graded earnings list).

In the Arkansas Derby, Gayego had no trouble transferring his Cushion Track form to the dirt at Oaklawn Park, winning by three-quarters of a length over Z FORTUNE (Siphon [Brz]). The runner-up offered a serious challenge in midstretch, threatening to overhaul the front runner along the outside, but Gayego never withered and clearly was going best under the wire. He earned his first win around two turns while registering a career-best 101 Speed rating in the 1 1/8-mile event.

Gayego is by 1992 champion juvenile and 1993 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) third-placer Gilded Time, a speed influence at stud but versatile enough to sire 2003 Ashland S. (G1) winner Elloluv and 2002 Ruffian H. (G1) winner Mandy’s Gold. Broodmare sire Lost Code, a multiple Grade 1 winner who earned more than $2 million, was a confirmed router. Gayego made his first three starts in sprints, winning twice, and entered the Arkansas Derby off a fine second in his two-turn debut, the March 15 San Felipe S. (G2). His stamina for 10 furlongs remains questionable and the Paulo Lobo runner probably took advantage of soft company on Saturday, with maiden winner TRES BORRACHOS (Ecton Park) finishing a clear third at nearly 38-1, but credit the improving colt with a very solid performance. And Gayego owns a favorable running style for the Kentucky Derby. With his natural speed, the dark bay colt can secure positioning behind dueling front runners, waiting for the opportunity to strike.

Z Fortune broke better than he did in the Rebel S. (G2), when he finished a non-threatening fifth at 3-5, and earned a berth in the Kentucky Derby with the $200,000 second-place check. However, he lost momentum late while stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time, and it may be a matter of how far he wants to run. The gray colt relished the one-mile distance of the Lecomte S. (G3) earlier this year, and middle distances could prove to be his specialty.

The rest of the Arkansas Derby contestants will miss the Kentucky Derby due to limited graded earnings.

The Holy Bull S. (G3), which served as the perfect launching point on dirt for Barbaro in 2006, was moved to April and extended to 1 3/16 miles this year, and HEY BYRN (Put It Back) notched his first stakes win with a 2 1/4-length decision over six unheralded rivals. A well-beaten fourth in the Florida Derby (G1) in his previous outing, Hey Byrn was pursuing graded earnings in order to make the Derby field, but the $90,000 first-place check, coupled with $50,000 from the Florida Derby, probably won’t be enough to make it this year. Hey Byrn received only a 90 Speed rating.

In other news, EIGHT BELLES (Unbridled’s Song) appears to be under serious Kentucky Derby consideration. Owner Rick Porter believes she’s good enough to challenge males, and this looks like a good year to take a chance with a talented filly. After winning her first two starts of the season in spectacular fashion, Eight Belles posted a convincing 1 1/4-length score in the Honeybee S. (G3) on March 16. She continued her winning ways in the April 6 Fantasy S. (G2), but the gray miss was hard-ridden late to beat Delta Downs stakes winner Alina (Came Home) by three parts of a length. Eight Belles is guaranteed a spot in the Derby field with $210,000 in graded earnings.
Porter conceded that he will likely cross-enter Eight Belles to both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) due to the possibility of a bad post. Eight Belles is a slow starter, and her connections don’t want to run her against 19 rivals from an outside gate. That sets up a potentially maddening situation. There are no also-eligibles in the Kentucky Derby, so Eight Belles could force a horse out of the race if she goes to the Oaks.

Upcoming

Saturday’s $325,000 Lexington S. (G2) drew a field of 11, and most are scrambling for a last-minute spot in the Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/16-mile Lexington is actually the next-to-last opportunity to earn graded earnings, with the $150,000 Withers S. (G3) at Aqueduct coming seven days out on April 26.

Florida Derby (G1) third-placer TOMCITO (Street Sense [Ire]) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) runner-up ATONED (Repent) are top draws this Saturday, while RACECAR RHAPSODY (Tale of the Cat), SALUTE THE SARGE (Forest Wildcat), BEHINDATTHEBAR (Forest Wildcat), BIG GLEN (Cactus Ridge) and RILEY TUCKER (Harlan’s Holiday) also merit consideration in what promises to be a contentious affair.

Top 10

1) PYRO — Whether he likes Polytrack isn’t important; he’s top class on dirt

2) COLONEL JOHN — Appears set to run a big race at Churchill; anxious to see how he works on dirt

3) BIG BROWN — Dutrow will keep the talented colt out of the spotlight in Florida with no Churchill works

4) ADRIANO — Worked well at CD for Graham Motion and will train up to the Derby; he’s good enough to win if he handles dirt

5) TALE OF EKATI — Questions remain following Wood, but he’s bred to relish 10 furlongs and figures to sit a perfect stalking trip

6) WAR PASS — If he gets clear, he might be gone; wet track would enhance his chances

7) GAYEGO — Got to give him credit in Arkansas Derby; wonder whether he’ll stretch out to 10 furlongs

8) COOL COAL MAN — Must throw out Polytrack effort; Fountain of Youth winner could still run well for Zito

9) MONBA — Blue Grass hero ran well at Churchill last year; tactical speed is an asset in Derby

10) VISIONAIRE — Too much to overcome in Blue Grass, but he ran well for fifth; strong closer

For today’s hand of the week, I have a very interesting one for you folks.  I recently played in a $100 buy in No-Limit tournament which featured 50 players.  The top payout was about $2,000 with 2^nd and 3^rd place also receiving a nice little piece of change as well.

I played what I think was a fairly strong tournament from start to finish.  I played rather conservatively in the beginning and only engaging in big pots and making big risks whn I was confident with the cards I was holding.  Why the conservative play you may ask?  Well, there are two schools of thought in tournament play.  Some players like to take chances early with the sole purpose of building up their chip stacks and being able to outmuscle the competition the rest of the way.  There is nothing wrong with this strategy other than its big hit or miss potential.  Make the wrong move and you’ll be knocked out early and you can kiss your buy-in good-bye.  Some players live and die with this approach.  Personally, I don’t like to do this.  I prefer to make smart plays early while others knock each other out and slowly build my stack.  Then, once I’m at the final table, I open up a bit, take more chance and really go after it.

This was my approach and I was able to head into the final table with a slight chip edge just off the lead.  I would try to use my chips to steal some blinds here and there because the cards just weren’t coming my way at all.  Before long, 5 people had been eliminated and there were just four of us remaining. The next person out would not be getting any money whatsoever so as you could imagine play became extremely tight.  In fact, it took 30 minutes for the last moneyless person to be eliminated.  I wasn’t involved in the hand but someone must have gotten restless because it was the first poor play I had seen in a while.

In any case, with 3 players left, I had a two to one chip lead over my other two competitors who were about equal.  At this point, I began studying how they were playing.  One player was quite passive, folding to just about any real action while the other was a classic maniac, routinely going all-in on just about any other hand which really made me question what he was doing.  In either case, I know how to approach these types of players.  By not changing their styles, they are very predictable and easy to defend against and go after.  Not surprisingly, the maniac eliminated the lamb and it was down to two, with $1,000 more going to the winner.

As I expected, he was very aggressive, either going all in pre or post flop in most of the hands.  My counter? I have him out chipped so I’ll just sit back and wait for him to shoot himself in the foot.  About 10 hands into the showdown, it happens.  I was dealt pocket 10’s and he limped in as I acted first.  The flop came down 10h-Ad-4c.  I checked and he instantly moved all in.  Well, I have a set of 10’s and unless this guy has a set of Jacks or Aces, he is done and I’m getting paid.  Sure enough, the cards flip over and he paired up his Aces with a 2 kicker.  What a dumb play. This guy is drawing dead and I have my Visa bill paid for.

The lesson of this hand is simple.  If you make yourself too predictable to your opposition, any player can pick up on what you’re doing and use it against you.  In this case, it meant $1000 of predictability.

 Until next time, may the chips fall your way.

Tilting is so rampant in the online games I play that I am often more amused now at my opponents propensity to fly-off-handle than I am surprised.  It happens nearly every game, whether the result of a bad beat, bad play, or God forbid… a miss-click.

If you find yourself making a huge majority of correct decisions and still struggling then you may be on a bad run, but over time that just cannot be the case.  You are probably risking too much with marginal situations, deluding yourself as to what actually a good decision is or is not, or simply giving up and accepting the idea of an eventual reload.  Come on now, you can do better than that!

 Until next time, may the chips fall your way.